Spartak Moscow 3–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

E. Barco 64'

M. Ugalde 62'

T. Bongonda 53'

12/7/2024

Premier League · Round 18Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Spartak Moscow56%

×Draw24%

Nizhny Novgorod20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.91

Spartak Moscow

1.70

Nizhny Novgorod

0.91

Spartak Moscow creates 87% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 78 away

1.72

creates per match

0.78

1.03

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.03

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

80%

Spartak Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod

76%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

44%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

51%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

24%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

60%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

23%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

74%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.70

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

56%

level

24%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

20%

Spartak Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Barco

Spartak Moscow · M

8.9

Match Events

33'

Vladislav Karapuzov

53'

T. Bongonda↳ Marquinhos

58'

A. Mukhin← A. Troshechkin

62'

M. Ugalde↳ C. Martins

64'

E. Barco↳ Marquinhos

67'

Zé Turbo← V. Karapuzov

67'

V. Tsarukyan← O. Ožegović

75'

J. Medina← T. Bongonda

75'

D. Prutsev← C. Martins

83'

S. Nicholson← M. Ugalde

83'

Ricardo Mangas← O. Reabciuk

85'

A. Chistyakov← M. Shnaptsev

88'

N. Chernov← S. Babić

90+2'

Danila Vedernikov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakNizhny

Overview

73%Possession27%

23Total Shots1

10Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots1

10On Target0

9Off Target0

4Blocked1

17Inside Box0

6Outside Box1

Passing

73%Possession27%

620Total Passes225

542Accurate Passes147

87%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2