Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow

A. Balboa 28'

R. Zobnin 72'

E. Barco 45' (pen)

4/26/2026

Premier League · Round 27Sovcombank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod32%

×Draw26%

Spartak Moscow43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.45

Nizhny Novgorod

1.21

Spartak Moscow

1.45

Spartak Moscow creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 119 away

1.15

creates per match

1.36

1.53

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.15

Spartak Moscow

1.36

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.53

Spartak Moscow

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

57%

Nizhny Novgorod or Spartak Moscow

74%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

68%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

13%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

70%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

34%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

12%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

42%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

43%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Spartak Moscow attack 1.36 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

32%

level

26%

Spartak Moscow scores more

43%

Spartak Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Medvedev

Nizhny Novgorod · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Vadim Lukyanov

28'

A. Balboa↳ R. Cephas

38'

Egor Smelov

45'

E. BarcoPenalty

62'

O. Olusegun← A. Balboa

65'

I. Dmitriev← C. Martins

72'

R. Zobnin↳ E. Barco

78'

M. Urvantsev← R. Cephas

78'

A. Ivlev← L. Ticic

80'

L. Garcia← M. Ugalde

80'

D. Denisov← G. Fernandes

88'

Ruslan Litvinov

89'

V. Grulev← E. Smelov

90+1'

Daniil Denisov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NizhnySpartak

Overview

35%Possession65%

5Total Shots11

3Corners7

13Fouls20

Shots

5Total Shots11

2On Target6

2Off Target2

1Blocked3

3Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

261Total Passes491

188Accurate Passes420

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0