Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow

J. Boselli 28'

G. Fernandes 90'

L. Garcia 17' (pen)

10/1/2025

Cup · Group Stage - 5Sovcombank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod27%

×Draw27%

Spartak Moscow46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.37

Nizhny Novgorod

0.99

Spartak Moscow

1.37

Spartak Moscow creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

0.73

creates per match

1.61

1.13

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.73

Spartak Moscow

1.61

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.13

Spartak Moscow

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

54%

Nizhny Novgorod or Spartak Moscow

73%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

73%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

10%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

63%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

26%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

8%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

37%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.73 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

27%

level

27%

Spartak Moscow scores more

46%

Spartak Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. GarciaPenalty

28'

J. Boselli

39'

Christopher Martins Pereira

45'

Christopher Wooh

46'

D. Denisov← E. Guziev

46'

R. Zobnin← C. Martins

46'

G. Fernandes← T. Bongonda

46'

P. Solari← D. Khlusevich

57'

Nail Umyarov

58'

Andrey Ivlev

60'

O. Olusegun← V. Tsarukyan

70'

Sven Karič

73'

M. Maiga← N. Ermakov

73'

V. Grulev← J. Boselli

74'

I. Dmitriev← D. Zorin

83'

Sven Karič

83'

Sven Karič

87'

N. Kakkoev← A. Ivlev

90'

G. Fernandes↳ P. Solari

Statistics

NizhnySpartak

Discipline

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0