Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Moscow

R. Litvinov 10'

5/6/2026

Cup · FinalLukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spartak Moscow46%

×Draw24%

CSKA Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Spartak Moscow

1.67

CSKA Moscow

1.29

Spartak Moscow creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.42

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

2.42

CSKA Moscow

1.58

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.00

CSKA Moscow

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

70%

Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow

76%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

54%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

24%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

81%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

50%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

23%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

37%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

61%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

46%

level

24%

CSKA Moscow scores more

30%

Spartak Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Litvinov↳ Marquinhos

22'

Kirill Danilov

40'

Ruslan Litvinov

46'

K. Glebov← L. Gondou

60'

C. Martins← Marquinhos

61'

Dmitri Barinov

63'

M. Popovic← A. Bandikyan

68'

Ivan Oblyakov

69'

João Victor

76'

D. Denisov← M. Ugalde

76'

I. Dmitriev← R. Zobnin

76'

M. Voronov← T. Musaev

89'

Ezequiel Barco

89'

V. Saus← P. Solari

89'

L. Garcia← E. Barco

89'

I. Firov←

Statistics

SpartakCSKA

Discipline

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0