CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 118+ matches
CSKA Moscow48%
Spartak Moscow27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Moscow creates 41% more chances
Season form · 118 home / 119 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Moscow ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 118 matches
Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Moscow attack 1.92 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59
Spartak Moscow attack 1.36 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
CSKA Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
LokomotivSpartak MoscowCSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akron
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
CSKA Moscow host Spartak Moscow on Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 13:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 3-2 in Premier League on October 5, 2025.
Goals: K. Glebov (5'), I. Oblyakov (12' pen), D. Krugovoy (18'), G. Fernandes (21'), L. Garcia (57').
Spartak Moscow controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 9.
The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.