Spartak Moscow 1–0 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Moscow

I. Dmitriev 43'

11/22/2025

Premier League · Round 16Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Spartak Moscow41%

×Draw26%

CSKA Moscow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.19

Spartak Moscow

1.39

CSKA Moscow

1.19

Spartak Moscow creates 17% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

1.72

creates per match

1.34

1.03

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.03

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

68%

Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow

74%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

19%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

16%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

70%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

33%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

56%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

41%

level

26%

CSKA Moscow scores more

32%

Spartak Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

I. Dmitriev

Spartak Moscow · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

M. Popovic← D. Krugovoy

43'

I. Dmitriev↳ E. Barco

57'

Milan Gajić

60'

Roman ZobninPenalty cancelled

64'

Matheus Alves← R. Villagra

68'

Christopher Wooh

68'

Moisés

76'

C. Martins← R. Zobnin

76'

Henrique Carmo←

77'

Alerrandro← K. Glebov

78'

Manfred Ugalde

90+1'

R. Litvinov← G. Fernandes

90+1'

A. Zabolotnyi← M. Ugalde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakCSKA

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots10

2Corners4

20Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

1On Target1

6Off Target7

3Blocked2

10Inside Box6

0Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

413Total Passes409

338Accurate Passes324

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1