Spartak Moscow 1–2 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Moscow

E. Barco 87' (pen)

K. Bistrović 89'

S. Guarirapa 44'

4/26/2025

Premier League · Round 26Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Spartak Moscow41%

×Draw26%

CSKA Moscow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.19

Spartak Moscow

1.39

CSKA Moscow

1.19

Spartak Moscow creates 17% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

1.72

creates per match

1.34

1.03

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.03

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

68%

Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow

74%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

19%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

16%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

70%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

33%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

56%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

41%

level

26%

CSKA Moscow scores more

32%

Spartak Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Barco

Spartak Moscow · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

Christopher Martins Pereira

16'

Abbosbek Fayzullaev

41'

Srđan Babić

44'

S. Guarirapa

46'

R. Zobnin← D. Denisov

46'

L. García← M. Ugalde

51'

Marquinhos CostaPenalty cancelled

51'

Miralem Pjanić

60'

Milan Gajić

61'

Alexis Duarte

64'

J. Medina← T. Bongonda

64'

O. Reabciuk← D. Prutsev

72'

K. Bistrović← A. Fayzullaev

72'

K. Glebov← S. Koïta

80'

M. Ignatov← N. Umyarov

80'

T. Musaev← S. Guarirapa

85'

Levi GarcíaPenalty confirmed

87'

E. BarcoPenalty

89'

Aleksandr Maksimenko

89'

Esequiel Barco

89'

Kirill Glebov

89'

R. Zhemaletdinov← M. Pjanić

89'

K. Bistrović↳ R. Zhemaletdinov

90+3'

Srđan Babić

90+3'

Srđan Babić

90+4'

Moisés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakCSKA

Overview

67%Possession33%

11Total Shots10

6Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target2

4Blocked4

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

529Total Passes259

475Accurate Passes206

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

6Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2