Sparta Praha 1–0 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sigma Olomouc

A. Rrahmani 56'

8/10/2025

Czech Liga · Round 4epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sparta Praha55%

×Draw24%

Sigma Olomouc21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.95

Sparta Praha

1.69

Sigma Olomouc

0.95

Sparta Praha creates 78% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.78

Sigma Olomouc

0.96

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.93

Sigma Olomouc

1.59

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.26scores more

Sigma Olomouc+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

79%

Sparta Praha or Sigma Olomouc

76%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

45%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

30%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

50%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

24%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

61%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

25%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.78 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 + Sparta Praha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

55%

level

24%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

21%

Sparta Praha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Rrahmani

Sparta Praha · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

18'

29'

37'

37'

Jan KoutnýRed card cancelled

41'

M. Hruska← D. Tkac

46'

M. Andersen← K. Kairinen

46'

L. Haraslin← A. Sorensen

56'

A. Rrahmani↳ P. Vydra

57'

L. Sadilek← P. Vydra

69'

J. Sip← M. Tijani

69'

S. Langer← R. Breite

70'

A. Dolznikov← J. Navratil

72'

K. Milla← J. Kuchta

78'

Magnus Kofod Andersen

80'

Jan Král

81'

S. Eneme← A. Rrahmani

83'

S. Michez← M. Mikulenka

90+2'

90+2'

90'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaSigma

Overview

76%Possession24%

15Total Shots4

0.96Expected Goals (xG)0.16

6Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots4

4On Target0

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

9Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

76%Possession24%

647Total Passes209

564Accurate Passes126

87%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

6Offsides3

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc

Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 in Czech Liga on August 10, 2025.

Goals: A. Rrahmani (56').

Sparta Praha controlled possession (76%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Prague.

Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc