Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Praha

F. Zorvan 37'

V. Olatunji 87'

J. Kuchta 25'

3/1/2025

Czech Liga · Round 24Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sigma Olomouc29%

×Draw26%

Sparta Praha45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.49

Sigma Olomouc

1.14

Sparta Praha

1.49

Sparta Praha creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.15

creates per match

1.55

1.43

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.15

Sparta Praha

1.55

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.43

Sparta Praha

1.13

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.32scores more

Sparta Praha+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

55%

Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha

74%

Draw or Sparta Praha

71%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

12%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

68%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

32%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

11%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

77%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

44%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

39%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.15 + Sparta Praha defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sparta Praha attack 1.55 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

29%

level

26%

Sparta Praha scores more

45%

Sparta Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Zorvan

Sigma Olomouc · M

7.3

Match Events

25'

J. Kuchta

27'

Jiří Sláma

27'

Martin Suchomel

37'

F. Zorvan↳ J. Kliment

46'

J. Sýkora← J. Šíp

46'

T. Wiesner← M. Suchomel

60'

L. Sadílek← M. Kofod Andersen

61'

V. Olatunji← Albion Rrahmani

67'

Y. Muritala← J. Kliment

71'

P. Vydra← K. Kairinen

79'

Jan Kuchta

82'

Filip ZorvanMissed penalty

82'

Filip Panák

83'

J. Navrátil← M. Mikulenka

83'

V. Birmančević← Q. Laçi

87'

V. Olatunji↳ J. Zelený

90+6'

Yunusa Owolabi Muritala

90+2'

Jakub Pokorný

90+2'

Victor Olatunji

90'

Victor OlatunjiGoal confirmed

90+4'

A. Sylla← F. Zorvan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SigmaSparta

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots11

7Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target6

1Off Target3

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

319Total Passes314

187Accurate Passes184

59%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Czech Liga: Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 in Czech Liga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Kuchta (25'), F. Zorvan (37'), V. Olatunji (87').

Sigma Olomouc controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Andrův stadion in Olomouc.

Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta Praha