Sparta Praha 1–1 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sigma Olomouc

Q. Laçi 61'

A. Růsek 50'

5/24/2025

Czech Liga · Championship Round - 5epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sparta Praha55%

×Draw24%

Sigma Olomouc21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.95

Sparta Praha

1.69

Sigma Olomouc

0.95

Sparta Praha creates 78% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.78

Sigma Olomouc

0.96

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.93

Sigma Olomouc

1.59

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.26scores more

Sigma Olomouc+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

79%

Sparta Praha or Sigma Olomouc

76%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

45%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

30%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

50%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

24%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

61%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

25%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.78 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 + Sparta Praha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

55%

level

24%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

21%

Sparta Praha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Panák

Sparta Praha · D

8.0

Match Events

7'

50'

57'

60'

60'

V. Olatunji← L. Sadílek

61'

Q. Laçi↳ P. Vydra

64'

Juraj Chvátal

67'

A. Ševínský← Albion Rrahmani

68'

F. Zorvan← M. Mikulenka

68'

F. Slavíček← J. Chvátal

68'

J. Šíp← A. Dolžnikov

75'

J. Elbel← A. Růsek

86'

E. Cobbaut← M. Suchomel

86'

R. Horák← Q. Laçi

87'

L. Juliš← M. Hadaš

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaSigma

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots13

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.71

3Corners2

7Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target2

6Off Target6

3Blocked5

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

395Total Passes284

302Accurate Passes164

76%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1