Sparta Praha 2–3 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sigma Olomouc

E. Krasniqi 90+1'

V. Olatunji 12'

F. Zorvan 86'

J. Fiala 78'

Y. Muritala 67'

9/27/2024

Czech Liga · Round 10epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sparta Praha55%

×Draw24%

Sigma Olomouc21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.95

Sparta Praha

1.69

Sigma Olomouc

0.95

Sparta Praha creates 78% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.78

Sigma Olomouc

0.96

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.93

Sigma Olomouc

1.59

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.26scores more

Sigma Olomouc+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

79%

Sparta Praha or Sigma Olomouc

76%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

45%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

30%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

50%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

24%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

61%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

25%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.78 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 + Sparta Praha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

55%

level

24%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

21%

Sparta Praha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Haraslín

Sparta Praha · F

7.5

Match Events

12'

V. Olatunji↳ V. Birmančević

39'

Yunusa Owolabi Muritala

53'

Qazim Laci

61'

I. Tuci← V. Birmančević

61'

T. Wiesner← Á. Preciado

61'

J. Fiala← J. Vodháněl

67'

Y. Muritala

71'

A. Rrahmani← V. Olatunji

76'

J. Šíp← M. Mikulenka

78'

J. Fiala↳ Y. Muritala

80'

Jáchym Šíp

82'

Lukáš Haraslín

85'

L. Sadílek← Q. Laçi

85'

E. Krasniqi← F. Panák

86'

86'

89'

89'

90+7'

90+4'

L. Vraštil← F. Zorvan

90+4'

Š. Langer← J. Spáčil

90+1'

E. Krasniqi↳ J. Zelený

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaSigma

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots6

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.10

10Corners1

8Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots6

6On Target4

7Off Target1

3Blocked1

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

506Total Passes303

402Accurate Passes198

79%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc beat Sparta Praha 3-2 in Czech Liga on September 27, 2024.

Goals: V. Olatunji (12'), Y. Muritala (67'), J. Fiala (78'), F. Zorvan (86'), E. Krasniqi (90+1').

Sparta Praha controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Praha.

Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc