Sparta Praha 2–4 Pardubice: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Pardubice

J. Kuchta 90'

L. Haraslin 90' (pen)

V. Samuel 90'

S. Simek 65'

D. Smekal 34'

V. Patrak 22'

11/30/2025

Czech Liga · Round 17epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sparta Praha50%

×Draw24%

Pardubice26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchPardubice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.12

Sparta Praha

1.66

Pardubice

1.12

Sparta Praha creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.20

1.04

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.60

Pardubice

1.20

allows per match

Sparta Praha

1.04

Pardubice

1.71

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.07on par

Pardubice+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Pardubice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

74%

Sparta Praha or Pardubice

76%

Draw or Pardubice

50%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

27%

Pardubice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

81%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

49%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

23%

Pardubice 1+ goals

67%

Pardubice 2+ goals

31%

Pardubice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

66%

Pardubice (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

Pardubice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.60 + Pardubice defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pardubice attack 1.20 + Sparta Praha defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

50%

level

24%

Pardubice scores more

26%

Sparta Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Kuchta

Sparta Praha · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

V. Patrak↳ A. Tanko

34'

D. Smekal↳ A. Tanko

35'

P. Kaderabek← F. Panak

35'

S. Eneme← P. Vydra

46'

Peter Vindahl Jensen

46'

A. Rrahmani← A. Preciado

46'

M. Rynes← V. Birmancevic

57'

57'

60'

64'

64'

64'

65'

65'

66'

66'

66'

75'

84'

87'

90'

90'

L. HaraslinPenalty

90'

V. Samuel↳ G. Botos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaPardubice

Overview

81%Possession19%

21Total Shots12

1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.56

4Corners1

6Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots12

5On Target9

6Off Target3

10Blocked0

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

81%Possession19%

713Total Passes176

628Accurate Passes104

88%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2