Pardubice 1–2 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sparta Praha

Š. Míšek 79'

J. Kuchta 64', 16'

4/19/2025

Czech Liga · Round 30CFIG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Pardubice34%

×Draw24%

Sparta Praha42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.58

Pardubice

1.39

Sparta Praha

1.58

Sparta Praha creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.40

1.76

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Pardubice

1.37

Sparta Praha

1.40

allows per match

Pardubice

1.76

Sparta Praha

1.41

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.43scores more

Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

58%

Pardubice or Sparta Praha

76%

Draw or Sparta Praha

66%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

15%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

75%

Pardubice 2+ goals

40%

Pardubice 3+ goals

16%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

79%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

47%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

44%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.37 + Sparta Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sparta Praha attack 1.40 + Pardubice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pardubice scores more

34%

level

24%

Sparta Praha scores more

42%

Sparta Praha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Kuchta

Sparta Praha · F

8.5

Match Events

16'

J. Kuchta↳ E. Krasniqi

30'

Martin Suchomel

48'

Kaan Kairinen

60'

Kamil Vacek

60'

V. Birmančević← E. Krasniqi

60'

P. Vydra← K. Kairinen

64'

J. Kuchta↳ P. Vydra

71'

F. Šancl← V. Patrák

72'

L. Kissiedou← V. Sychra

72'

S. Šimek← K. Vacek

74'

Albion Rrahmani← L. Haraslín

79'

Š. Míšek

82'

V. Olatunji← J. Kuchta

82'

84'

85'

90+6'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PardubiceSparta

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots11

0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.81

5Corners5

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

282Total Passes405

190Accurate Passes317

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1