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Pardubice vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
12/3/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 17CFIG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice28%
×Draw25%
Sparta Praha47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.13
Sparta Praha
1.54

Sparta Praha creates 36% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.16
Sparta Praha
1.82

allows per match

Pardubice
1.27
Sparta Praha
1.09

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
53%
Pardubice or Sparta Praha
75%
Draw or Sparta Praha
72%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
11%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
68%
Pardubice 2+ goals
31%
Pardubice 3+ goals
11%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
79%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
45%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
37%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.09 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Sparta Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sparta Praha attack 1.82 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pardubice scores more
28%
level
25%
Sparta Praha scores more
47%

Sparta Praha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 2-1 in Czech Liga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at CFIG Arena in Pardubice.