Pardubice 1–3 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sparta Praha

A. Sevinsky 77' (OG)

M. Andersen 71'

L. Haraslin 57'

A. Rrahmani 45'

8/3/2025

Czech Liga · Round 3Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Pardubice30%

×Draw25%

Sparta Praha45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.56

Pardubice

1.22

Sparta Praha

1.56

Sparta Praha creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.15

creates per match

1.41

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Pardubice

1.15

Sparta Praha

1.41

allows per match

Pardubice

1.72

Sparta Praha

1.29

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Pardubice+0.52scores more

Sparta Praha+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

55%

Pardubice or Sparta Praha

75%

Draw or Sparta Praha

70%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

12%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

70%

Pardubice 2+ goals

34%

Pardubice 3+ goals

12%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

79%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

46%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

40%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.15 + Sparta Praha defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sparta Praha attack 1.41 + Pardubice defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pardubice scores more

30%

level

25%

Sparta Praha scores more

45%

Sparta Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Andersen

Sparta Praha · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

Pavel Kadeřábek

45'

A. Rrahmani↳ J. Zeleny

46'

V. Patrak← R. Saarma

54'

Uchenna Aririerisim

57'

L. Haraslin↳ J. Kuchta

61'

V. Sychra← D. Darmovzal

68'

M. Suchomel← M. Rynes

68'

S. Eneme← J. Kuchta

71'

M. Andersen

72'

M. Lexa← S. Simek

72'

S. Bammens← L. Krobot

74'

K. Milla← L. Haraslin

75'

Milan Lexa

77'

A. SevinskyOwn goal

86'

M. Kvacek← S. Misek

87'

Vojtěch Patrák

89'

D. Holly← A. Rrahmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PardubiceSparta

Overview

27%Possession73%

4Total Shots17

0.09Expected Goals (xG)1.51

3Corners10

15Fouls8

Shots

4Total Shots17

0On Target10

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

2Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

196Total Passes542

134Accurate Passes475

68%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1