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Souths United vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Souths United
Souths United
FT
1 – 2
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
9/4/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 22Wakerley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Souths United36%
×Draw20%
Mitchelton43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Souths United
1.98
Mitchelton
2.17

Mitchelton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

Souths United
1.30
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Souths United
3.00
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Souths United or draw
57%
Souths United or Mitchelton
80%
Draw or Mitchelton
64%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+
19%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals
86%
Souths United 2+ goals
59%
Souths United 3+ goals
31%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
89%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
64%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)
46%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.30 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Souths United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Souths United scores more
36%
level
20%
Mitchelton scores more
43%

Mitchelton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mitchelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Souths United 1–2 Mitchelton

Mitchelton beat Souths United 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Wakerley Park in Brisbane.