Souths United 3–1 Mitchelton: Result & Stats

Souths United

FT

3 – 1

Mitchelton

5/27/2017

League #191 · Round 13Wakerley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Souths United22%

×Draw18%

Mitchelton60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Souths UnitedExpected goals in this matchMitchelton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.70

Souths United

1.61

Mitchelton

2.70

Mitchelton creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.56

3.83

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Souths United

1.33

Mitchelton

1.56

allows per match

Souths United

3.83

Mitchelton

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

Mitchelton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Souths United or draw

40%

Souths United or Mitchelton

82%

Draw or Mitchelton

78%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+

10%

Mitchelton wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals

80%

Souths United 2+ goals

48%

Souths United 3+ goals

22%

Mitchelton 1+ goals

93%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

75%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)

27%

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.33 + Mitchelton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mitchelton attack 1.56 + Souths United defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Souths United scores more

22%

level

18%

Mitchelton scores more

60%

Mitchelton at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mitchelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff