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Mitchelton vs Souths United — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
3 – 1
Souths United
Souths United
6/4/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 11Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mitchelton40%
×Draw21%
Souths United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
2.06
Souths United
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Souths United
1.50

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Souths United
2.40

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Souths United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Souths United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
61%
Mitchelton or Souths United
79%
Draw or Souths United
60%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
22%
Souths United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
87%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
61%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
34%
Souths United 1+ goals
87%
Souths United 2+ goals
60%
Souths United 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
50%
Souths United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Souths United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Souths United defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.06

Souths United attack 1.50 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mitchelton scores more
40%
level
21%
Souths United scores more
39%

Mitchelton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mitchelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 3–1 Souths United

Mitchelton beat Souths United 3-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.