Mitchelton 1–4 Souths United: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

1 – 4

Souths United

2/26/2017

League #191 · Round 2Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mitchelton57%

×Draw20%

Souths United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchSouths United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.46

Mitchelton

2.35

Souths United

1.46

Mitchelton creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.43

1.50

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Mitchelton

2.00

Souths United

1.43

allows per match

Mitchelton

1.50

Souths United

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Souths United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Souths United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

77%

Mitchelton or Souths United

80%

Draw or Souths United

43%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

36%

Souths United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

90%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

68%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

41%

Souths United 1+ goals

77%

Souths United 2+ goals

43%

Souths United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

71%

Souths United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Souths United away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 2.00 + Souths United defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Souths United attack 1.43 + Mitchelton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mitchelton scores more

57%

level

20%

Souths United scores more

23%

Mitchelton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mitchelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff