Sonderjyske 1–2 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Copenhagen

M. Jensen 82' (pen)

Robert 56', 29'

9/27/2025

Superliga · Round 10Haderslev Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sonderjyske30%

×Draw24%

FC Copenhagen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.72

Sonderjyske

1.34

FC Copenhagen

1.72

FC Copenhagen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.73

1.71

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.41

FC Copenhagen

1.73

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.71

FC Copenhagen

1.28

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.27scores more

FC Copenhagen+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

54%

Sonderjyske or FC Copenhagen

76%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

70%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

13%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

74%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

39%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

15%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

82%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

51%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

39%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 22 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.41 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Copenhagen attack 1.73 + Sonderjyske defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

30%

level

24%

FC Copenhagen scores more

46%

FC Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Robert

FC Copenhagen · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

G. Duru← R. Sigurgeirsson

29'

Robert↳ M. Elyounoussi

46'

56'

65'

66'

66'

M. Hoppe← K. M. Ingason

72'

Thomas Delaney

73'

Y. Moukoko← V. Claesson

78'

M. Cherif← D. L. Gretarsson

80'

Sefer EminiPenalty confirmed

82'

M. JensenPenalty

83'

J. Suzuki← Robert

86'

88'

90+6'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeFC

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots13

1.12Expected Goals (xG)1.27

3Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots13

1On Target5

3Off Target6

4Blocked2

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

360Total Passes610

283Accurate Passes525

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen

FC Copenhagen beat Sonderjyske 2-1 in Superliga on September 27, 2025.

Goals: Robert (29', 56'), M. Jensen (82' pen).

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Haderslev Football Stadium in Haderslev.

Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen