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Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2026

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
J. Simonsen 33'
Pep Biel 65'
10/17/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 12Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sonderjyske30%
×Draw24%
FC Copenhagen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.34
FC Copenhagen
1.72

FC Copenhagen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.41
FC Copenhagen
1.73

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.71
FC Copenhagen
1.28

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.27scores more
FC Copenhagen+0.51scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
54%
Sonderjyske or FC Copenhagen
76%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
70%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
13%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
74%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
39%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
15%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
82%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
51%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
39%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 22 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.41 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Copenhagen attack 1.73 + Sonderjyske defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
30%
level
24%
FC Copenhagen scores more
46%

FC Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. DiksFC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen · D
7.9

Match Events

33'
J. Simonsen↳ A. Taiwo
35'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
58'
L. Singh← R. Højlund
65'
Pep Biel↳ J. Wind
71'
R. Vinderslev← J. Eskesen
71'
E. Frederiksen← R. Hassan
79'
E. Jelert← W. Bøving
83'
S. Reese← D. Prosser
83'
F. Moumbagna← A. Taiwo
84'
Faris Pemi Moumbagna
86'
Pep BielPenalty awarded
87'
Victor Ekani
88'
Nicolai Boilesen

Possession

40%Sonderjyske

Shots

9Sonderjyske

Pass accuracy

48%Sonderjyske

Statistics

SonderjyskeFC
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots10
2Corners13
9Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target3
3Off Target3
4Blocked4
7Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
392Total Passes566
307Accurate Passes473
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen

Sonderjyske and FC Copenhagen drew 1-1 in Superliga on October 17, 2021.

Goals: J. Simonsen (33'), Pep Biel (65').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sydbank Park in Haderslev.