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FC Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske — Superliga 2026

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
V. Claesson 8'
L. Björklund 43'
3/9/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Copenhagen54%
×Draw22%
Sonderjyske24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
1.99
Sonderjyske
1.26

FC Copenhagen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.21
Sonderjyske
1.37

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.15
Sonderjyske
1.77

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less
Sonderjyske-0.10scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Sonderjyske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
76%
FC Copenhagen or Sonderjyske
78%
Draw or Sonderjyske
46%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
32%
Sonderjyske wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
86%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
59%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
32%
Sonderjyske 1+ goals
72%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
36%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
69%
Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.21 + Sonderjyske defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sonderjyske attack 1.37 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
54%
level
22%
Sonderjyske scores more
24%

FC Copenhagen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. LópezFC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen · D
7.9

Match Events

8'
V. Claesson↳ M. López
43'
L. Björklund↳ S. Emini
45+2'
Sefer Emini
46'
E. Achouri← Robert
46'
A. Chiakha← M. Mattsson
46'
E. Duru← T. Klysner
50'
Marcos López
50'
Mads Agger
54'
Kristall Máni Ingason
56'
A. Lyng← M. Agger
61'
Rodrigo Huescas
62'
R. Falk← W. Clem
62'
M. Elyounoussi← J. Larsson
65'
I. Djantou← L. Björklund
83'
B. Meling← M. López
83'
M. Olsen← L. Qamili
83'
D. Wilkins← K. Ingason

Possession

66%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCSonderjyske
Overview
66%Possession34%
12Total Shots6
2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.55
3Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots6
6On Target2
5Off Target4
1Blocked0
10Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
676Total Passes358
609Accurate Passes278
90%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske

FC Copenhagen and Sonderjyske drew 1-1 in Superliga on March 9, 2025.

Goals: V. Claesson (8'), L. Björklund (43').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Parken in København.