FC Copenhagen 0–2 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sonderjyske

K. M. Ingason 45'

L. Qamili 43'

12/7/2025

Superliga · Round 18Parken Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Copenhagen54%

×Draw22%

Sonderjyske24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.26

FC Copenhagen

1.99

Sonderjyske

1.26

FC Copenhagen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

2.21

creates per match

1.37

1.15

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.21

Sonderjyske

1.37

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.15

Sonderjyske

1.77

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less

Sonderjyske-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Sonderjyske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

76%

FC Copenhagen or Sonderjyske

78%

Draw or Sonderjyske

46%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

32%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

86%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

59%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

32%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

72%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

36%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

69%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.21 + Sonderjyske defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sonderjyske attack 1.37 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

54%

level

22%

Sonderjyske scores more

24%

FC Copenhagen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Gabriel Pereira

FC Copenhagen · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Thomas Delaney

17'

Andreas Oggesen

22'

S. Emini← R. Vinderslev

43'

L. Qamili

45'

K. M. Ingason

46'

V. Claesson← Y. Moukoko

46'

M. Madsen← L. Lerager

46'

B. Meling← P. Hatzidiakos

57'

Andreas Cornelius

62'

V. Dadason← T. Delaney

69'

Robert← J. Larsson

69'

T. Klysner← S. Waever

69'

M. Cherif← K. M. Ingason

70'

G. Duru← M. Agger

81'

A. Lyng← O. Hyseni

90+5'

Sefer Emini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSonderjyske

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots9

2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.37

8Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

5On Target6

11Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box8

8Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

563Total Passes343

490Accurate Passes263

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2