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Sochaux vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Sochaux
Sochaux
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
B. Guillaume 61'
5/13/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Sochaux40%
×Draw28%
Guingamp32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.27
Guingamp
1.09

Sochaux creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.25
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

Sochaux
0.94
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
68%
Sochaux or Guingamp
72%
Draw or Guingamp
60%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
18%
Guingamp wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
72%
Sochaux 2+ goals
36%
Sochaux 3+ goals
14%
Guingamp 1+ goals
66%
Guingamp 2+ goals
30%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
56%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.25 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Sochaux defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sochaux scores more
40%
level
28%
Guingamp scores more
32%

Sochaux at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
E. BasilioGuingampGuingamp · G
8.2

Match Events

34'
Rassoul Ndiaye
61'
B. Guillaume↳ J. Gaudin
62'
M. Doumbia← G. Weissbeck
63'
I. Sissoko← Eliezer Mayenda
73'
H. Picard← B. Guillaume
77'
Maxime Sivis
77'
J. Dossou← M. Do Couto
77'
V. Henry← Y. Armougom
82'
R. Pereira De Sa← R. Ndiaye
87'
T. Luvambo← A. El Ouazzani
88'
V. Manceau← J. Gaudin
90+7'
Christ Makosso
90'
Hugo Picard
90+4'
W. Tchimbembé← T. Muyumba
90+4'
M. Barthelmé← J. Livolant

Possession

58%Sochaux

Shots

9Sochaux

Pass accuracy

52%Sochaux

Statistics

SochauxGuingamp
Overview
58%Possession42%
9Total Shots10
5Corners5
11Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots10
6On Target3
1Off Target5
2Blocked2
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
550Total Passes394
460Accurate Passes305
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Guingamp

Guingamp beat Sochaux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 13, 2023.

Goals: B. Guillaume (61').

Sochaux controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.