Guingamp 1–2 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sochaux

M. Sivis 45+2'

S. Ambri 78' (pen)

R. Ndiaye 48'

9/21/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guingamp39%

×Draw28%

Sochaux33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Guingamp

1.24

Sochaux

1.11

Guingamp creates 12% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 95 away

1.40

creates per match

1.03

1.20

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

Sochaux

1.03

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

67%

Guingamp or Sochaux

72%

Draw or Sochaux

61%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

17%

Sochaux wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

71%

Guingamp 2+ goals

35%

Guingamp 3+ goals

13%

Sochaux 1+ goals

67%

Sochaux 2+ goals

30%

Sochaux 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

54%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sochaux attack 1.03 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guingamp scores more

39%

level

28%

Sochaux scores more

33%

Guingamp at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Ambri

Sochaux · M

7.6

Match Events

5'

Youssouf M'Changama

13'

Jerome Mombris

45+2'

M. Sivis↳ Y. M'Changama

46'

M. Teixeira← A. Virginius

46'

48'

54'

58'

60'

G. Weissbeck← T. Mauricio

60'

J. Lopy← O. Thioune

63'

Tristan Muyumba

74'

Y. Gomis← M. Phaeton

74'

Y. Cathline← Y. MChangama

76'

Hady Camara

78'

S. AmbriPenalty

81'

Y. Kitala← S. Ambri

82'

Yann Kitala

85'

M. Merghem← S. Diarra

85'

L. Carnot← T. Muyumba

87'

Maxence Prévot

90+5'

Mehdi Merghem

90+8'

Aldo Kalulu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampSochaux

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots5

5Corners2

17Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots5

3On Target2

9Off Target3

5Blocked0

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

413Total Passes301

331Accurate Passes228

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls18

5Yellow Cards5

4Offsides2

Ligue 2: Guingamp 1–2 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Guingamp 2-1 in Ligue 2 on September 21, 2021.

Goals: M. Sivis (45+2'), R. Ndiaye (48'), S. Ambri (78' pen).

Guingamp controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.

Guingamp vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Guingamp 1–2 Sochaux