Guingamp 1–2 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sochaux

P. Lemonnier 21'

M. Doumbia 81'

A. Ndour 37'

8/30/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guingamp39%

×Draw28%

Sochaux33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Guingamp

1.24

Sochaux

1.11

Guingamp creates 12% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 95 away

1.40

creates per match

1.03

1.20

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

Sochaux

1.03

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

67%

Guingamp or Sochaux

72%

Draw or Sochaux

61%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

17%

Sochaux wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

71%

Guingamp 2+ goals

35%

Guingamp 3+ goals

13%

Sochaux 1+ goals

67%

Sochaux 2+ goals

30%

Sochaux 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

54%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sochaux attack 1.03 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guingamp scores more

39%

level

28%

Sochaux scores more

33%

Guingamp at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Livolant

Guingamp · F

8.2

Match Events

21'

P. Lemonnier↳ J. Livolant

36'

Mathis Riou

37'

A. Ndour↳ T. Mauricio

41'

42'

64'

64'

64'

R. Pereira De Sa← T. Mauricio

64'

M. Doumbia← M. Do Couto

64'

A. Kalulu← I. Sissoko

65'

T. Muyumba← W. Tchimbembé

70'

G. Courtet← B. Guillaume

81'

M. Doumbia↳ A. Kalulu

82'

T. Le Normand← M. Riou

82'

S. Alvero← F. Kanouté

86'

Y. Armougom← G. Weissbeck

90+4'

Aldo Kalulu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampSochaux

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots9

4Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target5

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

404Total Passes551

339Accurate Passes466

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2