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Guingamp vs Sochaux — Coupe de France 2018

Guingamp
Guingampadvanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sochaux
Sochaux
D. Louiserre 120+22' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
B. Niasse 120+20' (pen)
Junior Armando Mendes 120+17' (pen)
S. Nair 120+16' (pen)
L. Maronnier 120+14' (pen)
P. Lemonnier 120+12' (pen)
K. Sidibé 120+8' (pen)
J. Siwe 120+4' (pen)
S. Guendouz 59'
M. Riou 38'
M. Patouillet 120+19' (pen)
N. Kotto Kotto Mouyema 120+18' (pen)
S. Loubao 120+15' (pen)
H. Bayanginisa 120+13' (pen)
M. Mukanya 120+11' (pen)
V. Mayela 120+9' (pen)
J. Dacosta 120+5' (pen)
T. Fontaine 120+3' (pen), 12'
A. Gnanduillet 45+1'
1/14/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guingamp17%
×Draw20%
Sochaux63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.00
Sochaux
2.15

Sochaux creates 115% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.00
Sochaux
2.58

allows per match

Guingamp
1.71
Sochaux
1.00

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
37%
Guingamp or Sochaux
80%
Draw or Sochaux
83%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
6%
Sochaux wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
63%
Guingamp 2+ goals
26%
Guingamp 3+ goals
8%
Sochaux 1+ goals
88%
Sochaux 2+ goals
63%
Sochaux 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
21%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Sochaux away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.00 + Sochaux defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sochaux attack 2.58 + Guingamp defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guingamp scores more
17%
level
20%
Sochaux scores more
63%

Sochaux at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
D. LouiserreGuingampGuingamp · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
T. Fontaine
29'
M. Patouillet
38'
M. Riou
45+1'
A. Gnanduillet
59'
S. Guendouz↳ H. Picard
64'
V. Joseph← R. Pereira De Sa
64'
S. Loubao← I. Macalou
64'
L. Maronnier← D. Ourega
64'
J. Siwe← T. Luvambo
71'
Junior Armando Mendes← H. Picard
71'
K. Sidibé← S. Guendouz
72'
M. Mukanya← A. Gnanduillet
75'
É. N'Gatta← Amilcar Silva
75'
N. Kotto Kotto Mouyema← M. Lecolier
85'
A. Sissoko
87'
S. Nair← B. Labeau
90+5'
K. Sidibe
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+1'
D. MichelMissed penalty
120+2'
D. LouiserrePenalty
120+3'
T. FontainePenalty
120+4'
J. SiwePenalty
120+5'
J. DacostaPenalty
120+6'
A. HemiaMissed penalty
120+7'
V. JosephMissed penalty
120+8'
K. SidibéPenalty
120+9'
V. MayelaPenalty
120+10'
M. RiouMissed penalty
120+11'
M. MukanyaPenalty
120+12'
P. LemonnierPenalty
120+13'
H. BayanginisaPenalty
120+14'
L. MaronnierPenalty
120+15'
S. LoubaoPenalty
120+16'
S. NairPenalty
120+17'
Junior Armando MendesPenalty
120+18'
N. Kotto Kotto MouyemaPenalty
120+19'
M. PatouilletPenalty
120+20'
B. NiassePenalty
120+21'
T. FontaineMissed penalty
120+22'
D. LouiserrePenalty

Possession

76%Guingamp

Shots

29Guingamp

Pass accuracy

55%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampSochaux
Overview
76%Possession24%
29Total Shots10
10Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
29Total Shots10
10On Target6
6Off Target1
13Blocked3
15Inside Box6
14Outside Box4
Passing
76%Possession24%
667Total Passes219
591Accurate Passes157
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Sochaux

Guingamp and Sochaux drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on January 14, 2025.

Goals: T. Fontaine (12', 120+3' pen), M. Riou (38'), A. Gnanduillet (45+1'), S. Guendouz (59'), D. Louiserre (120+2' pen, 120+22' pen), J. Siwe (120+4' pen), J. Dacosta (120+5' pen), K. Sidibé (120+8' pen), V. Mayela (120+9' pen), M. Mukanya (120+11' pen), P. Lemonnier (120+12' pen), H. Bayanginisa (120+13' pen), L. Maronnier (120+14' pen), S. Loubao (120+15' pen), S. Nair (120+16' pen), Junior Armando Mendes (120+17' pen), N. Kotto Kotto Mouyema (120+18' pen), M. Patouillet (120+19' pen), B. Niasse (120+20' pen).

Guingamp controlled possession (76%) and registered 29 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.