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Sloboda Uzice vs Metalac GM — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
9/21/2025Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 6Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Uzice40%
×Draw31%
Metalac GM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.08
Metalac GM
0.87

Sloboda Uzice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.59
Metalac GM
1.07

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
0.67
Metalac GM
0.57

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
71%
Sloboda Uzice or Metalac GM
69%
Draw or Metalac GM
60%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
16%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
66%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
29%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
10%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
58%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
22%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
58%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.59 + Metalac GM defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Metalac GM attack 1.07 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
40%
level
31%
Metalac GM scores more
29%

Sloboda Uzice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloboda Uzice 1–1 Metalac GM

Sloboda Uzice and Metalac GM drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.