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Metalac GM vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
5/2/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 3Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM56%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Uzice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.53
Sloboda Uzice
0.74

Metalac GM creates 107% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 76 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.49
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Metalac GM
0.86
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
82%
Metalac GM or Sloboda Uzice
74%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
44%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
29%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
78%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
45%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
20%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
52%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
17%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
76%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Metalac GM scores more
56%
level
26%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
18%

Metalac GM at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalac GM vs Sloboda Uzice

Sloboda Uzice beat Metalac GM 2-1 in Prva Liga on May 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.