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Sloboda Uzice vs Metalac GM — Prva Liga 2018

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
10/1/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 10Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sloboda Uzice41%
×Draw30%
Metalac GM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.15
Metalac GM
0.93

Sloboda Uzice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.04
Metalac GM
0.86

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
Metalac GM
1.26

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
71%
Sloboda Uzice or Metalac GM
70%
Draw or Metalac GM
59%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
17%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
68%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
32%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
11%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
61%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
24%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
58%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
41%
level
30%
Metalac GM scores more
29%

Sloboda Uzice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Sloboda Uzice 0–0 Metalac GM

Sloboda Uzice and Metalac GM drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.