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Metalac GM vs Sloboda Uzice — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Metalac GM
Metalac GM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
4/11/2026Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 21Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metalac GM47%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Uzice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalac GM
1.34
Sloboda Uzice
0.90

Metalac GM creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Metalac GM
1.70
Sloboda Uzice
1.13

allows per match

Metalac GM
0.67
Sloboda Uzice
0.98

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw
75%
Metalac GM or Sloboda Uzice
72%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
53%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+
22%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals
74%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
39%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
15%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
59%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)
65%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.70 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.13 + Metalac GM defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metalac GM scores more
47%
level
28%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
25%

Metalac GM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Metalac GM 1–1 Sloboda Uzice

Metalac GM and Sloboda Uzice drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.