Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
9/13/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 9Tarczynski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slask Wroclaw49%
×Draw25%
Puszcza Niepołomice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slask Wroclaw
1.61
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.10

Slask Wroclaw creates 46% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 103 away

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw
1.88
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw
74%
Slask Wroclaw or Puszcza Niepołomice
75%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
51%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+
26%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals
80%
Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals
48%
Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals
22%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
67%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
30%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)
65%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.88 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more
49%
level
25%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
26%

Slask Wroclaw at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Slask Wroclaw 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Slask Wroclaw beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 in I Liga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Tarczynski Arena.