Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Slask Wroclaw

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

11/30/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 17Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slask Wroclaw52%

×Draw25%

Puszcza Niepołomice23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Slask Wroclaw

1.61

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.97

Slask Wroclaw creates 66% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

1.41

creates per match

0.76

1.18

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.41

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.76

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.18

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

77%

Slask Wroclaw or Puszcza Niepołomice

75%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

48%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

28%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

80%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

48%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

22%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

62%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

25%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

70%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.41 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

52%

level

25%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

23%

Slask Wroclaw at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff