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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw
3/21/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 26Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice35%
×Draw24%
Slask Wroclaw41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.50
Slask Wroclaw
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Slask Wroclaw
2.12

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
Slask Wroclaw
1.82

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Slask Wroclaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
59%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Slask Wroclaw
76%
Draw or Slask Wroclaw
65%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
17%
Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
78%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
44%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
19%
Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals
80%
Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals
48%
Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
46%
Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slask Wroclaw attack 2.12 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
35%
level
24%
Slask Wroclaw scores more
41%

Slask Wroclaw at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw

Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in I Liga on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Niepołomice.