Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw — Ekstraklasa 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Puszcza Niepołomice40%
Slask Wroclaw34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Puszcza Niepołomice creates 10% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Puszcza Niepołomice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches
Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42
Slask Wroclaw attack 1.10 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Puszcza Niepołomice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Lechia Gdansk
Legia Warszawa
Piast Gliwice
Cracovia Krakow
Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce
Miedz Legnica
Gornik ZabrzeSlask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie SosnowiecIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Puszcza Niepołomice host Slask Wroclaw on Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw
Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on May 24, 2025.
The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Niepołomice.