Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

T. Guercio 90+2'

T. Neugebauer 12'

7/19/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Slask Wroclaw46%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.37

Slask Wroclaw

1.72

Lechia Gdansk

1.37

Slask Wroclaw creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

1.48

1.26

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.62

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw-0.14scores less

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

69%

Slask Wroclaw or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

54%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

24%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

82%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

51%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

25%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

75%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

40%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

60%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.62 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

46%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

31%

Slask Wroclaw at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

78

T. Guercio

Slask Wroclaw · D

8.0

Match Events

8'

Jakub Jezierski

12'

T. Neugebauer

47'

Tomasz Neugebauer

62'

S. Buletsa← T. Neugebauer

66'

Serafin Szota

75'

F. Rejczyk← J. Jezierski

76'

T. Guercio← S. Szota

77'

B. Viunnyk← L. DArrigo

84'

B. İnce← P. Samiec-Talar

84'

Ł. Gerstenstein← M. Żukowski

87'

Conrado← C. Mena

87'

K. Wendt← R. Kapič

88'

Arnau Ortiz← P. Schwarz

90+4'

Simeon Petrov

90+2'

T. Guercio↳ A. Petkov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaskLechia

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots3

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.07

12Corners1

12Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots3

5On Target2

8Off Target0

7Blocked1

14Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

477Total Passes335

411Accurate Passes253

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2