Lechia Gdansk 0–0 Slask Wroclaw: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slask Wroclaw

4/1/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 26Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Lechia Gdansk42%

×Draw25%

Slask Wroclaw34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

Lechia Gdansk

1.52

Slask Wroclaw

1.34

Lechia Gdansk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.02

1.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Slask Wroclaw

1.02

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.66

Slask Wroclaw

1.41

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.01on par

Slask Wroclaw+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Slask Wroclaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

66%

Lechia Gdansk or Slask Wroclaw

75%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw

58%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

20%

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

78%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

45%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

20%

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

74%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

39%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

55%

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.64 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.02 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

42%

level

25%

Slask Wroclaw scores more

34%

Lechia Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Leszczyński

Slask Wroclaw · G

7.9

Match Events

16'

M. Terrazzino← İ. Durmuş

22'

Mario Maloča

45+3'

Patrick Olsen

60'

Flávio Paixão← M. Gajos

60'

B. Diabaté← K. Friesenbichler

64'

P. Samiec-Talar← D. Jastrzembski

68'

Jarosław Kubicki

69'

P. Szwedzik← Caye Quintana

78'

J. de Kamps← J. Abu Hanna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaSlask

Overview

70%Possession30%

13Total Shots9

4Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked3

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

729Total Passes308

633Accurate Passes199

87%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1