Lechia Gdansk 2–0 Slask Wroclaw: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slask Wroclaw

M. Nalepa 57'

J. Kałuziński 22'

2/5/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Lechia Gdansk42%

×Draw25%

Slask Wroclaw33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.33

Lechia Gdansk

1.51

Slask Wroclaw

1.33

Lechia Gdansk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.03

1.64

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.63

Slask Wroclaw

1.03

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Slask Wroclaw

1.40

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Slask Wroclaw+0.08on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Slask Wroclaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

67%

Lechia Gdansk or Slask Wroclaw

75%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw

58%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

20%

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

78%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

44%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

19%

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

74%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

38%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

55%

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.63 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.03 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

42%

level

25%

Slask Wroclaw scores more

33%

Lechia Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

İ. Durmuş

Lechia Gdansk · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

J. Kałuziński↳ M. Maloča

45+3'

Szymon Lewkot

57'

M. Nalepa↳ İ. Durmuş

64'

Caye Quintana← R. Pich

64'

K. Mączyński← S. Lewkot

64'

M. Zylla← D. Štiglec

76'

M. Terrazzino← M. Gajos

76'

J. Biegański← J. Kałuziński

81'

F. Koperski← J. Ceesay

82'

A. Łyszczarz← F. Piasecki

82'

J. Iskra← P. Janasik

85'

Krzysztof Mączyński

87'

R. Pietrzak← İ. Durmuş

87'

L. Zwoliński← Flávio Paixão

90'

Marco Terrazzino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaSlask

Overview

47%Possession53%

22Total Shots8

14Corners1

14Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots8

8On Target3

10Off Target4

4Blocked1

15Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

400Total Passes456

288Accurate Passes354

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4