Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

D. Stec 90' (OG)

Erik Expósito 71'

P. Janasik 29' (OG)

9/10/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 9Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Slask Wroclaw47%

×Draw23%

Lechia Gdansk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.34

Slask Wroclaw

1.74

Lechia Gdansk

1.34

Slask Wroclaw creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.62

creates per match

1.42

1.26

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.62

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.86

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw-0.14scores less

Lechia Gdansk+0.03on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

70%

Slask Wroclaw or Lechia Gdansk

77%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

53%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

25%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

82%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

52%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

25%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

74%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

39%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

61%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.62 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.42 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

47%

level

23%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

30%

Slask Wroclaw at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

P. Olsen

Slask Wroclaw · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Maciej GajosGoal cancelled

24'

Joeri de Kamps

29'

P. JanasikOwn goal

35'

David Stec

39'

Martin Konczkowski

64'

Víctor García← D. Jastrzembski

64'

C. Clemens← K. Sezonienko

66'

Flávio Paixão← L. Zwoliński

66'

K. Tobers← M. Nalepa

66'

J. Kałuziński← J. de Kamps

71'

Erik Expósito↳ J. Yeboah

78'

M. Terrazzino← M. Gajos

85'

John YeboahPenalty confirmed

85'

Dušan Kuciak

88'

John Yeboah

88'

A. Łyszczarz← J. Yeboah

90'

Diogo Verdasca

90'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

90+3'

Mario Maloča

90+4'

D. Grétarsson← Nahuel Leiva

90'

D. StecOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaskLechia

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots6

5Corners8

8Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots6

6On Target2

3Off Target1

2Blocked3

3Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

362Total Passes406

281Accurate Passes323

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides7