Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

D. Štiglec 33'

T. Makowski 90+5'

8/8/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Slask Wroclaw46%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.37

Slask Wroclaw

1.72

Lechia Gdansk

1.37

Slask Wroclaw creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

1.48

1.26

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.62

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw-0.14scores less

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

69%

Slask Wroclaw or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

54%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

24%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

82%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

51%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

25%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

75%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

40%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

60%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.62 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

46%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

31%

Slask Wroclaw at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Diogo Verdasca

33'

D. Štiglec

60'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

63'

B. Diabate← M. Gajos

63'

K. Sezonienko← J. Ceesay

63'

Flávio Paixão← L. Zwoliński

64'

R. Pich← Caye Quintana

64'

Erik Expósito← F. Piasecki

64'

S. Lewkot← R. Makowski

73'

P. Schwarz← M. Praszelik

78'

R. Pietrzak← Conrado

84'

M. Musolitin← M. Żukowski

88'

Kacper Sezonienko

90+5'

T. Makowski↳ M. Musolitin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SlaskLechia

Overview

49%Possession51%

19Total Shots17

6Corners8

14Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots17

8On Target8

11Off Target9

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

7Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1