Sivasspor 1–0 Konyaspor: Result & Stats

Sivasspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Konyaspor

R. Manaj 86'

4/27/2024

League #203 · Round 34BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sivasspor42%

×Draw28%

Konyaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SivassporExpected goals in this matchKonyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Sivasspor

1.30

Konyaspor

1.06

Sivasspor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

0.83

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sivasspor

0.83

Konyaspor

1.11

allows per match

Sivasspor

1.00

Konyaspor

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Konyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Konyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw

70%

Sivasspor or Konyaspor

72%

Draw or Konyaspor

58%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+

19%

Konyaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals

73%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

37%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

14%

Konyaspor 1+ goals

65%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

29%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

58%

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 0.83 + Konyaspor defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.30

Konyaspor attack 1.11 + Sivasspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sivasspor scores more

42%

level

28%

Konyaspor scores more

30%

Sivasspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Đ. Nikolić

Sivasspor · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

Q. Menig← A. Turgunboyev

60'

V. Ethemi← L. Prip

60'

B. Sambou← S. Çikalleshi

60'

O. Ülgün← A. Cicâldău

75'

M. Caktaš← C. Charisis

75'

84'

86'

88'

89'

90+3'

90'

90+3'

90+3'

C. Osmanpaşa← C. NJie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SivassporKonyaspor

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots7

0.35Expected Goals (xG)0.34

1Corners6

12Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target2

2Off Target4

4Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

318Total Passes551

248Accurate Passes474

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1