Konyaspor 0–1 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Konyaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sivasspor

C. N'Jie 15'

12/11/2023

League #203 · Round 15Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Konyaspor34%

×Draw29%

Sivasspor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KonyasporExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.16

Konyaspor

1.09

Sivasspor

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

0.93

creates per match

1.25

1.07

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Konyaspor

0.93

Sivasspor

1.25

allows per match

Konyaspor

1.07

Sivasspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw

63%

Konyaspor or Sivasspor

71%

Draw or Sivasspor

66%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals

66%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

30%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

10%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

69%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

32%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

48%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 0.93 + Sivasspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sivasspor attack 1.25 + Konyaspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Konyaspor scores more

34%

level

29%

Sivasspor scores more

37%

Sivasspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sivasspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Calvo

Konyaspor · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

45+2'

46'

46'

54'

54'

62'

65'

74'

77'

M. Barrow← B. Kapacak

77'

H. Arslan← Y. Konak

78'

F. Koita← C. NJie

79'

Sokol Cikalleshi

79'

Bengali-Fodé Koita

83'

Nélson Oliveira← S. Çikalleshi

83'

C. Karayel← S. Dikmen

84'

Uğur Çiftçi

90+2'

A. Appindangoyé← G. Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KonyasporSivasspor

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots9

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.75

7Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots9

1On Target3

7Off Target3

6Blocked3

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

595Total Passes342

527Accurate Passes261

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

League #203: Konyaspor 0–1 Sivasspor

Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 1-0 in League #203 on December 11, 2023.

Goals: C. N'Jie (15').

Konyaspor controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Konya.

Konyaspor vs Sivasspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Konyaspor 0–1 Sivasspor