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Sibenik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — HNL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
M. Frigan 75'
N. Galešić 49'
V. Majstorović 45+3' (pen)
A. Bristrić 22'
B. Karrica 19'
2/11/2022HNLHNL · Round 23Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sibenik48%
×Draw24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.70
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.26

Sibenik creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sibenik
0.89
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.89

allows per match

Sibenik
1.64
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
2.50

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
72%
Sibenik or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
76%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
52%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
25%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
82%
Sibenik 2+ goals
51%
Sibenik 3+ goals
24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
72%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
36%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
63%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.64 · 72 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 0.89 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 0.89 + Sibenik defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sibenik scores more
48%
level
24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
28%

Sibenik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
V. MajstorovićHrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac · D
8.5

Match Events

19'
B. Karrica↳ V. Majstorović
22'
A. Bristrić↳ B. Karrica
45+2'
Doni Grdić
45+3'
V. MajstorovićPenalty
49'
N. Galešić
51'
Niko GalešićGoal confirmed
53'
Mario Ćurić
61'
I. Vidović← A. Marin
62'
D. Škugor← S. Sahiti
68'
A. Cvetković← L. Čirjak
68'
M. Kukoč← B. Karrica
75'
M. Frigan
78'
M. Veljača← A. Bristrić
82'
K. Perić← M. Frigan
82'
M. Bašić← V. Hodža

Possession

54%Sibenik

Shots

9Sibenik

Pass accuracy

50%Sibenik

Statistics

SibenikHrvatski
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots17
2Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots17
2On Target6
4Off Target8
3Blocked3
4Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
447Total Passes379
325Accurate Passes273
73%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Sibenik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Sibenik 5-0 in HNL on February 11, 2022.

Goals: B. Karrica (19'), A. Bristrić (22'), V. Majstorović (45+3' pen), N. Galešić (49'), M. Frigan (75').

Sibenik controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.