Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–1 Sibenik: Result & Stats

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sibenik

L. Viduka 23'

M. Jakoliš 28' (pen)

10/30/2021

HNL · Round 14Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac36%

×Draw27%

Sibenik38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.25

Sibenik

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

0.83

creates per match

0.92

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

0.83

Sibenik

0.92

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.67

Sibenik

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

62%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Sibenik

73%

Draw or Sibenik

64%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

15%

Sibenik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

71%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

36%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

13%

Sibenik 1+ goals

72%

Sibenik 2+ goals

37%

Sibenik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

49%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Sibenik away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 0.83 + Sibenik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sibenik attack 0.92 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

36%

level

27%

Sibenik scores more

38%

Sibenik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

M. Jakoliš

Sibenik · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

23'

25'

27'

27'

28'

M. JakolišPenalty

57'

V. Petković← L. Viduka

61'

A. Cvetković← I. Delić

73'

79'

84'

85'

90+2'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HrvatskiSibenik

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots18

8Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots18

5On Target5

9Off Target6

4Blocked7

6Inside Box11

12Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

357Total Passes382

260Accurate Passes293

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik

Hrvatski Dragovoljac and Sibenik drew 1-1 in HNL on October 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Viduka (23'), M. Jakoliš (28' pen).

Sibenik controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik