Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3–1 Sibenik: Result & Stats

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sibenik

V. Majstorović 56' (pen), 39' (pen)

B. Karrica 43'

A. Marin 61' (pen)

4/22/2022

HNL · Round 32Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac36%

×Draw27%

Sibenik38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.25

Sibenik

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

0.83

creates per match

0.92

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

0.83

Sibenik

0.92

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.67

Sibenik

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

62%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Sibenik

73%

Draw or Sibenik

64%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

15%

Sibenik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

71%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

36%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

13%

Sibenik 1+ goals

72%

Sibenik 2+ goals

37%

Sibenik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

49%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Sibenik away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 0.83 + Sibenik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sibenik attack 0.92 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

36%

level

27%

Sibenik scores more

38%

Sibenik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Majstorović

Hrvatski Dragovoljac · D

9.3

Match Events

37'

Bernard KarricaPenalty awarded

39'

Stefan Perić

39'

V. MajstorovićPenalty

41'

Matija Frigan

43'

B. Karrica↳ A. Bristrić

46'

J. Kvesić← M. Mina

46'

E. Julardžija← M. Ćurić

56'

V. MajstorovićPenalty

60'

Roko Jurišić

61'

A. MarinPenalty

64'

M. Kukoč← A. Bristrić

65'

Valentino Majstorović

72'

76'

81'

83'

89'

M. Veljača← M. Frigan

89'

A. Cvetković← B. Karrica

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HrvatskiSibenik

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots20

5Corners8

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots20

7On Target8

7Off Target7

7Blocked5

14Inside Box12

7Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

422Total Passes420

354Accurate Passes346

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Sibenik 3-1 in HNL on April 22, 2022.

Goals: V. Majstorović (39' pen, 56' pen), B. Karrica (43'), A. Marin (61' pen).

Hrvatski Dragovoljac controlled possession (50%) and registered 21 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik