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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
CANC
00:00
Sibenik
Sibenik
3/13/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 20Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac31%
×Draw28%
Sibenik41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.03
Sibenik
1.23

Sibenik creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.25
Sibenik
1.31

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.16
Sibenik
0.82

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
59%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
69%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
12%
Sibenik wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
64%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
28%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
9%
Sibenik 1+ goals
71%
Sibenik 2+ goals
35%
Sibenik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
43%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.25 + Sibenik defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sibenik attack 1.31 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
31%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
41%

Sibenik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hrvatski Dragovoljac host Sibenik

March 13, 2020: Hrvatski Dragovoljac take on Sibenik in First NL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac host Sibenik at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.