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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Nizhny Novgorod — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Unknown 31' (OG)
T. Suleymanov 48' (pen)
2/12/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl48%
×Draw24%
Nizhny Novgorod28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.66
Nizhny Novgorod
1.21

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.44
Nizhny Novgorod
1.63

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.78
Nizhny Novgorod
1.88

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
72%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Nizhny Novgorod
76%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
52%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
25%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
81%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
49%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
23%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
70%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
34%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
63%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.44 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.63 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
48%
level
24%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Own goal
48'
T. SuleymanovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod

Shinnik Yaroslavl and Nizhny Novgorod drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 12, 2023.

Goals: ? (31' o.g.), T. Suleymanov (48' pen).

The match was played at TBC in TBC.