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Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9/19/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod50%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.88

Nizhny Novgorod creates 64% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 123 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
77%
Nizhny Novgorod or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
50%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
25%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
76%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
42%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
50%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
23%

Nizhny Novgorod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Nizhny Novgorod beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-0 in First League on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.