Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–3 Nizhny Novgorod

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nizhny Novgorod

N. Malyarov 78'

N. Kalinskiy 73'

M. Sultonov 42'

A. Popov 38'

3/14/2021

First League · Round 30Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%

×Draw30%

Nizhny Novgorod38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.13

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.01

Nizhny Novgorod

1.13

Nizhny Novgorod creates 12% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 53 away

1.13

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

62%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Nizhny Novgorod

70%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

12%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

64%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

68%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

31%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

46%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

32%

level

30%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

38%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

22'

31'

38'

42'

47'

49'

60'

A. Shumskikh← P. Komolov

65'

S. Samodin← A. Sikoev

66'

M. Gashchenkov← A. Popov

69'

A. Nosov← D. Samoylov

69'

V. Ignatenko← P. Ignatovich

71'

T. Suleymanov← M. Yansane

73'

N. Kalinskiy

77'

A. Stavpets← A. Sapeta

78'

N. Malyarov

79'

N. Dorofeev← E. Steshin

86'

S. Zuykov← I. Temnikov

Shinnik4-4-2

Nizhny3-4-3

10

▼

Yansane

14

⚽

Sultonov

78

⚽

Kalinskiy

8

⚽

▼

Popov

20

▼

Komolov

41

▼

Sapeta

11

▼

22

7

24

1

13

29

▼

Ignatovic

17

Pokidyshe

23

Kozubaev

4

▼

Steshin

15

▼

Samoylov

51

▼

Sikoev

5

Zinkov

33

⚽

Malyarov

9

Nizamutdi

43

Polyakov

Manager: Y. Gazzaev

65'▲S. Samodin←▼A. Sikoev

69'▲A. Nosov←▼D. Samoylov

69'▲V. Ignatenko←▼P. Ignatovich

79'▲N. Dorofeev←▼E. Steshin

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

22Samodin70Nosov90Ignatenko89Dorofeev3Strelov19Samsonov21Golub24Azyavin27Shchadin44Tananeev45Betyuzhnov57Zirikov

Manager: R. Evdokimov

60'▲A. Shumskikh←▼P. Komolov

66'▲M. Gashchenkov←▼A. Popov

71'▲T. Suleymanov←▼M. Yansane

77'▲A. Stavpets←▼A. Sapeta

86'▲S. Zuykov←▼I. Temnikov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

5Shumskikh6Gashchenkov93Suleymanov61Stavpets23Zuykov9Galadzhan17Gorbunov88Berkovskiy90Smirnov91Goglichidze99Sysuev

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–3 Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on March 14, 2021.

Goals: A. Popov (38'), M. Sultonov (42'), N. Kalinskiy (73'), N. Malyarov (78').

The match was played at Shinnik in Yaroslavl.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–3 Nizhny Novgorod