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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
11/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%
×Draw30%
Nizhny Novgorod38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.01
Nizhny Novgorod
1.13

Nizhny Novgorod creates 12% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 53 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
62%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Nizhny Novgorod
70%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
68%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
12%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
64%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
68%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
31%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
46%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
32%
level
30%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–3 Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.